Ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, ivolumu yezimpahla emakethe yezokuhamba ngobuningi izothatha futhi futhi izinga lezimpahla lizoyeka ukuwa. Kodwa-ke, umkhuba wemakethe ngonyaka olandelayo usagcwele ukungaqiniseki. Amanani kulindeleke ukuthi ahlele "cishe kuhlu lwezindleko eziguquguqukayo". Kube khona igagasi le-PANIC selokhu iChina liphakamise imingcele ekuqubukeni ngoDisemba. Ukuqashwa ezinkampanini zokuhweba zasefekthri zawa ngokwesithathu ngasekupheleni kukaDisemba. Kuzothatha cishe izinyanga ezingama-3-6 ngesidingo sasekhaya nezangaphandle ukuze siphinde siphinde sibe nezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zeleveli yangaphambi kokubhala.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, izinga lokuhamba kwezimpahla selincipha ngaso sonke isikhathi. I-inflation kanye nempi yaseRussia-Ukraine kuvimbele amandla okuthenga aseYurophu nase-United States, kuhambisana nokugaya okuhamba kancane, futhi ivolumu yezimpahla yehle kakhulu. Ukuhanjiswa okuvela e-Asia kuya e-US Pluntged Amaphesenti angama-21 ngoNovemba kusukela ngonyaka owedlule kuya ku-1.324,600 Teus, ngokusuka ku-Descartes Datamyne, inkampani yocwaningo lwe-US.
Kusukela ngoSepthemba, ukwehla kwemithwalo incithakalo kuye kwandiswe. Ukuhanjiswa kwesitsha kusuka e-Asia kuya e-US kuwele inyanga yesine eqondile ngoNovemba kusukela ngonyaka owedlule, kugcizelela ukufunwa okuvilaphayo kwase-US. I-China, eyayinezinga eliphakeme kakhulu ngokulayishwa komhlaba, yabona amaphesenti angama-30 ehle, inyanga yesithathu elandelanayo yamaphesenti angaphezu kwamaphesenti ayi-10 ngenxa yesikhathi esiphansi se-26 ngenxa yesikhathi esiphansi se-COORONAVIRAS
Kodwa-ke, kube nesigameko sokujaha emakethe yempahla yakamuva. Umthamo wezimpahla wokuthumela okuhlala njalo okuhlalwa kwezimpahla kanye ne-yangming e-United States ubuyile esimweni esigcwele. Ngaphezu komphumela wokuhanjiswa ngaphambi komkhosi weSpring, okuqhubekayo okungaqinisekiswa kwe-Mainland China nakho kuyisihluthulelo.
Imakethe yomhlaba wonke isiqala ukwamukela i-veak encane yokuthumela, kepha ngonyaka olandelayo isazoba unyaka onzima. Ngenkathi izimpawu zokuphela kokuphela ziyehla ngamanani ezimpahla zivele, kunzima ukubikezela ukuthi ukuphindeka kuzoba kude kangakanani. Ngonyaka olandelayo kuzothinta ushintsho olubaluleke kakhulu ngamanani okuhambisa, i-IMO emibili emisha yokukhipha ama-carbon imithethonqubo izoqala ukusebenza, ukugxila komhlaba jikelele egagasi lokuqhekeka komkhumbi.
Abathwali bamathambo amakhulu sebeqalile ukwamukela amasu ahlukahlukene okubhekana nokwehla kwevolumu yezimpahla. Okokuqala, sebeqalile ukulungisa imodi yokusebenza ye-Far East East-Europe. Ezinye izindiza zikhethe ukudlula e-Suez Canal futhi zivuselele eCape yethemba elihle bese liya eYurophu. Ukushintshwa okunjalo kuzokwengeza izinsuku eziyi-10 kuye ngesikhathi sokuhamba phakathi kwe-Asia naseYurophu, ukonga kuma-suez toll nokwenza ukuhamba kancane kwe-Suez nokwenza ukuhamba kancane kube nokuhambisana nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni. Okubaluleke kakhulu, inani lemikhumbi edingekayo lizokhuphuka, ligcwalise ngokungaqondile umthamo omusha.
1. Isidingo sizohlala siphansi ngo-2023: Amanani olwandle azohlala aphansi futhi aguquguqukayo
"Izindleko zenhlupheko ephilayo zidla imali yokusebenzisa imali yabathengi, okuholela ekufuneni okuncane kwezimpahla ezingenisiwe ezingenisiwe." UPatrik Berglund wabikezela, "Lokho kwathi, uma isimo sezomnotho siwohloka kakhulu, singabi kakhulu."
Kubikwa ukuthi inkampani eyodwa yokuthumela ithe kunzima ukubikezela ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yokuthumela ngobuningi ngonyaka olandelayo. Imakethe yesitsha igxile ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule ngemuva kokuphonswa okubukhali ngamanani entengo yezimpahla nezidingo. "Ukubikezela imvelo yebhizinisi jikelele sekube nzima ngokwengeziwe lapho ebhekene nokungaqiniseki okwandayo," kusho le nkampani.
Uveze izici eziningi zobungozi: "Isibonelo, ukungqubuzana okuqhubekayo eRussia-Ukraine, umthelela wezinqubomgomo ezihlukanisayo, kanye nezingxoxo zabasebenzi emachwebeni amaSpanishi naseMelika." Ngaphandle kwalokhu, kunezici ezintathu ezikhathazayo.
I-Sharp Drop ngamanani e-Spot: Amanani e-SCFI Spot aqala ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari kulo nyaka, nangemva kokwehla okubukhali, ukwehla okuphelele kungama-78% kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari. Indlela yeShanghai-Northern Europe yehle phansi ngamaphesenti angama-86, nendlela ye-Shanghai-Amerish-Amerish Trans-Pacific yehla ngamaphesenti angama-82 nge- $ 1,423 nge-FEU, ngamaphesenti ayi-19 aphansi kune-2010-2019 average.
Izinto zingaba zimbi kakhulu kwabanye abathwali. Umuntu ulindele izindleko zokusebenza ukuze agcine amanani akhuphukayo nawokumpahla azoqhubeka nokuwa njengokukhuphuka kwamanani ku-Double Drickers.
Emfelweni ngaphambili, ingabe ukwenqatshwa okulindeleke ku-Q3 kuye ku-Q4 kuqhubeke ngesilinganiso esifanayo ngo-2023? "Izingcindezi ze-inflationary kulindeleke ukuthi," Mnu. One waphendula. Le nkampani isike isibikezelo sayo esitholakele engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka wayo wezimali yathi isebenza inzuzo ngaphezu kokuqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala neyesibili yonyaka wokugcina.
2. Amanani entengo yesikhathi eside angaphansi kwengcindezi: Amanani okuhambisa azoqhubeka nokushintshashintsha ezingeni eliphansi
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngamanani e-Spot angukuphamba, izinkampani zokuthumela zithi izinkontileka zesikhathi eside zangesikhathi eside ziyahlukaniswa ngamanani aphansi. Lapho ebuzwa ukuthi amakhasimende awo acele ukuncishiswa kwamanani entengo yenkontileka, omunye wathi: "Lapho inkontileka yamanje isizophelelwa yisikhathi, umuntu uzoqala ukuxoxa kabusha ngamakhasimende."
I-Kepler Cheuvreux Analyrs R.Karlsen ithe: "I-Outlook yonyaka olandelayo iyisifebe esincane, izintengo zenkontileka nazo zizoqala ukuxoxisana etholwa ephansi kanye ne-carriers 'ethoni." I-Alphariner eyayibalwa phambilini ukuthi imali engenayo yezinkampani ezihambisayo kulindeleke ukuthi yehle phakathi kwama-30% nama-70%, ngokususelwa kwimininingwane yokubikezela yokuqala ebikwe yizinkampani zokuthumela.
Ukuwa kwesicelo kwabathengi ngisho nabathwali manje "bancintisana ngevolumu," ngokusho kwe-XENETA CEO. I-Jørgen Lian, umhlaziyi omkhulu ohlaziyiweni ezimakethe ze-DNB, ibikezela ukuthi umugqa ongezansi emakethe ye-atsower uzovivinywa ngo-2023.
NjengoJames Hookham, uMongameli woMkhandlu WamaShippers wembulunga yonke, uveza ukubuyekezwa kwakhe kwekota yemakethe yokuthumela impahla, ekhishwe ngeviki ukuthi ama-2023 kulindeleke ukuthi awele eceleni kwemakethe yamabala emasontweni azayo. "
Isikhathi sePosi: Feb-14-2023