Ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, umthamo wempahla emakethe yezokuthutha ngobuningi uzokhula futhi futhi izinga lempahla lizoyeka ukwehla.Kodwa-ke, ukuthambekela kwemakethe ngonyaka ozayo kusagcwele ukungaqiniseki.Amanani alindeleke ukuthi ehle "cishe afinyelele ebangeni lezindleko eziguquguqukayo".Kube negagasi lokwethuka selokhu iChina yasusa imingcele ekuqubukeni kwalesi sifo ngoDisemba.Ukuqashwa ezinkampanini ezihweba emafemini kwehle kakhulu ngengxenye yesithathu ekupheleni kukaDisemba.Kuzothatha cishe izinyanga ezi-3-6 ukuthi isidingo sasekhaya nesangaphandle sibuyele kokubili kokuthathu kwezinga langaphambi kobhubhane.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla belilokhu lehla ngaso sonke isikhathi.Ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nempi yaseRussia-Ukraine kuvimbele amandla okuthenga e-Europe nase-United States, kuhambisana nokugaywa kancane kwempahla, futhi umthamo wempahla wehle kakhulu.Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla okuvela e-Asia kuya e-US kwehle ngamaphesenti angama-21 ngoNovemba kusukela ngonyaka odlule kuya ku-1.324,600 TEUs, isuka kumaphesenti angu-18 ngo-Okthoba, ngokusho kukaDescartes Datamyne, inkampani yocwaningo yaseMelika.
Kusukela ngoSepthemba, ukwehla kwenani lempahla kuye kwanda.Ukuthunyelwa kwama-container kusuka e-Asia kuya e-US kwehle ngenyanga yesine elandelanayo ngoNovemba kusukela ngonyaka owedlule, okugcizelela isidingo esivilaphayo saseMelika.I-China, ebinezinga eliphezulu kakhulu ngokulayishwa komhlaba, yehle ngamaphesenti angama-30, okuyinyanga yesithathu ilandelana yokwehla okungaphezu kwamaphesenti ayishumi. IVietnam ibone ukwanda ngamaphesenti angama-26 ngenxa yesikhathi esiphansi ngonyaka odlule njengoba ubhubhane lwe-coronavirus lwehlisa ukukhiqizwa kanye ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Kodwa-ke, kube khona igagasi elisheshayo emakethe yakamuva yezimpahla.Umthamo wezimpahla we-Evergreen Shipping and Yangming Shipping e-United States usubuyele esimweni esigcwele.Ngaphezu komphumela wokuthunyelwa ngaphambi koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, ukuvulwa okuqhubekayo kwezwe laseChina nakho kuwukhiye.
Imakethe yomhlaba wonke isiqala ukwamukela inkathi encane ephezulu yokuthunyelwa, kodwa unyaka ozayo usazoba unyaka oyinselele.Nakuba izimpawu zokuphela kokwehla kwamanani ezimpahla zivela, kunzima ukubikezela ukuthi i-rebound izoba kude kangakanani.Ngonyaka ozayo kuzothinta izinguquko ezibaluleke kakhulu emazingeni okuthutha, i-IMO izosebenza imithetho emibili emisha yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni, okugxilwe kuwo umhlaba wonke ekuqhekekeni kwemikhumbi.
Izinkampani ezithwala impahla ezinkulu seziqalile ukusebenzisa amasu ahlukene okubhekana nokwehla komthamo wempahla.Okokuqala, sebeqalile ukulungisa indlela yokusebenza yomzila we-Far East-Europe.Ezinye izindiza zikhethe ukudlula iSuez Canal bese ziphindela eCape of Good Hope bese ziya eYurophu.Ushintsho olunjalo lungangeza izinsuku eziyi-10 esikhathini sohambo phakathi kwe-Asia ne-Europe, konga ezindlekweni ze-Suez futhi kwenze ukuhamba kancane kuhambisane kakhulu nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni.Okubaluleke kakhulu, inani lemikhumbi edingekayo lingakhuphuka, ngokungaqondile linciphise umthamo omusha.
1. Isidingo sizohlala siphansi ngo-2023: izintengo zasolwandle zizohlala ziphansi futhi ziguquguquka
"Izindleko zobunzima bokuphila zidla amandla okusebenzisa abathengi, okuholela ekwehleni kwesidingo sempahla yamakhonteyina evela kwamanye amazwe. Alukho uphawu lwesixazululo kule nkinga emhlabeni wonke, futhi silindele ukuthi umthamo wasolwandle unciphe."UPatrik Berglund ubikezele, "Lokho kusho, uma isimo somnotho siqhubeka siwohloka, singaba sibi kakhulu."
Kubikwa ukuthi inkampani yezokuthutha EYODWA ithe kunzima ukubikezela intuthuko yemakethe yemikhumbi emikhulu ngonyaka ozayo.Imakethe yamakhonteyina imile ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule ngemuva kokwehla okukhulu kwezinga lempahla kanye nesidingo."Ukubikezela isimo sebhizinisi jikelele sekunzima kakhulu ngenxa yokwanda kokungaqiniseki," kusho inkampani.
Uveze izinto eziningi ezibeka engcupheni: "Isibonelo, ukungqubuzana okuqhubekayo kweRussia-Ukraine, umthelela wezinqubomgomo zokuhlukaniswa kwabantu, kanye nezingxoxo zabasebenzi emachwebeni aseSpain nawaseMelika."Ngaphandle kwalokho, kunezindawo ezintathu ezikhathazayo ngokukhethekile.
Ukwehla okubukhali kwamanani ezindawo: Amazinga e-SCFI afinyelele phezulu ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari kulo nyaka, futhi ngemva kokwehla okukhulu, ukwehla okuphelele kungu-78% kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.Umzila we-Shanghai-Northern Europe wehle ngamaphesenti angama-86, kanti umzila we-Shanghai-Spanish-American Trans-Pacific wehle ngamaphesenti angama-82 ngo-$1,423 nge-FEU ngayinye, ungaphansi ngamaphesenti angu-19 kunesilinganiso sango-2010-2019.
Izinto zingase zibe zimbi kakhulu ku-ONE nakwabanye abathwali.UMUNTU ulindele ukuthi izindleko zokusebenza ziqhubeke zikhuphuka kanye nezinga lempahla liqhubeke lehla njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kunyukela kumadijithi aphindwe kabili.
Ngaphambili kwezinzuzo, ingabe ukwehla okulindelekile ukusuka ku-Q3 kuye ku-Q4 kuzoqhubeka ngezinga elifanayo kuze kube ngu-2023?"Kulindelwe ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali," kuphendula uMnu ONE.Le nkampani isisike isibikezelo semali etholwayo engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka wayo wezimali futhi yathi inzuzo yokusebenza ingaphezu kwesigamu uma iqhathaniswa nengxenye yokuqala neyesibili yonyaka odlule.
2. izintengo zenkontileka yesikhathi eside zingaphansi kwengcindezi: izintengo zokuthumela zizoqhubeka nokuguquguquka ngezinga eliphansi
Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba amanani amabala ehla, izinkampani zemikhumbi zithi izinkontileka zesikhathi eside zangaphambili ziphinde zixoxisane ukuze zibe amanani aphansi.Lapho ebuzwa ukuthi amakhasimende ayo acele yini ukwehliswa kwezintengo zenkontileka, u-ONE uthe: "Lapho inkontileka yamanje isizophelelwa yisikhathi, u-ONE uzoqala ukuxoxa ngokuvuselelwa namakhasimende."
Umhlaziyi we-Kepler Cheuvreux u-Anders R.Karlsen uthe: "Isimo sonyaka ozayo sifiphele kancane, izintengo zezinkontileka nazo zizoqala ukuxoxisana ngezinga eliphansi futhi imali etholwa abathwali izoba ngokwejwayelekile."Ngaphambilini i-Alphaliner ibale ukuthi imali engenayo yezinkampani zemikhumbi bekulindeleke ukuthi yehle phakathi kuka-30% no-70%, ngokusekelwe kudatha yesibikezelo sokuqala esibikwe izinkampani zemikhumbi.
Ukwehla kwesidingo sabathengi kusho ukuthi abathwali manje "basebancintisana ngevolumu," ngokusho kwe-CEO ye-Xeneta.UJørgen Lian, umhlaziyi ophezulu kwa-DNB Markets, ubikezela ukuthi okubalulekile emakethe yeziqukathi kuzohlolwa ngo-2023.
Njengoba uJames Hookham, umongameli woMkhandlu weGlobal Shippers 'Council, eveza ekubuyekezweni kwakhe kwekota kwemakethe yokuthumela amakhonteyina, ekhishwe kuleli sonto: "Omunye wemibuzo emikhulu ezongena ngo-2023 ukuthi ingakanani inani labo elinciphayo abathumeli abazozibophezela ekuxoxisaneni kabusha nezinkontileka. nokuthi ingakanani umthamo ozobekwa eceleni emakethe yendawo. Imakethe yamabala kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane emasontweni ezayo. "
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-14-2023