Umnotho Womhlaba Wonke 2023

Umhlaba kumele ugweme ukuhlukaniswa

Manje yisikhathi esiyinselele ngokukhethekile umnotho wembulunga yonke enombono obekulindelwe ukuba mnyama ngo-2023.

Amabutho amathathu anamandla agodla umnotho wembulunga yonke: ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, isidingo sokuqinisa inqubomgomo yezimali phakathi kokuphilayo kanye nokuphazamiseka kwezokwehla kwamanani, kanye nokuncipha komnotho waseChina.

Ngesikhathi semihlangano yonyaka yonyaka yezezimali yoMphakathi ngo-Okthoba, sathola ukukhula komhlaba wonke ukuze sithathe kancane sisuka kumaphesenti angama-6.0 dlule ngonyaka ama-3.2 kulo nyaka. Futhi, ngo-2023, sehlise isibikezelo sethu sibe ngamaphesenti angama-2.7 - Amaphesenti angama-0,2 amaphesenti amaphesenti aphansi kunokuba aboniswe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambili ngoJulayi.

Silindele ukuba kwehla lomhlaba wonke kusekelwe kubanzi, namazwe okubalwa kwezimali kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yomnotho wezomnotho wezomnotho wembulunga yonke noma elandelayo. Umnotho amathathu ngobukhulu: I-United States, iChina kanye ne-Euro indawo, izoqhubeka nokutatazela.

Kunethuba elilodwa ngamathuba amane ukuthi ukukhula komhlaba wonke ngonyaka ozayo kungawela ngaphansi kwamaphesenti ama-2 - umlando ophansi. Ngamafuphi, okubi kakhulu kuseza futhi, eminye iminotho emikhulu, efana neJalimane, kulindeleke ukuthi ingene ekuhlalweni kokwehla kokwehla konyaka olandelayo.

Ake sibheke ezomnotho ezinkulu kakhulu emhlabeni:

E-United States, ukuqinisa izimo zezimali kanye nezimali kusho ukukhula kungaba cishe ngamaphesenti angama-20.

EChina, sehlise isimo sonyaka olandelayo sokukhuphuka saba ngamaphesenti angama-4,4 ngenxa yomkhakha wezakhiwo obuthaka, kanye nesidingo se-buthakalor emhlabeni.

E-Eurozone, inkinga yamandla ebangelwa yi-Russia-Ukraine Ingxabano enzima, yehlisa ukukhiqizwa kwethu kokukhula kwamaphesenti angama-2023 kuye kwangama-0,5.

Cishe yonke indawo, amanani akhuphuke ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi lezo zokudla namandla, zidala ubunzima obukhulu emindenini esengozini.

Ngaphandle kokuncipha, izingcindezi ze-inflation zifakazela ababanzi futhi baphikelela kakhudlwana kunalokho obekulindelwe. I-Ightation Global Manje sekulindeleke ukuthi iphakame ngamaphesenti angama-9,5 ngonyaka ka-2022 ngaphambi kokuhlehlisa amaphesenti angama-4,1 ngonyaka ka-2024. I-inflation nayo inamba kakhulu ukudla namandla.

I-Outlook ingakhula ngokwengeziwe futhi ama-computer wokuhweba akwengeziwe asenselele kakhulu. Nazi izingozi ezine ezibalulekile:

Ingozi yenqubomgomo yezezimali, yezimali, noma yezezimali yenqubomgomo yezezimali ikhuphuke kakhulu ngesikhathi sokungaqiniseki okukhulu.

Isiphithiphithi ezimakethe zezimali singadala ukuthi izimo zezezimali zomhlaba ziwohloke, futhi nedola laseMelika lokuqinisa ngokuqhubekayo.

I-inflation ingaphinde, futhi, kufakazela ukuphikelela okuningi, ikakhulukazi uma izimakethe zabasebenzi zihlala ziqinile kakhulu.

Ekugcineni, amabutho e-Ukraine asakhula. Ukunyuka okwengeziwe kungakhulisa ubunzima obukhona kanye nokuphepha kokuphepha.

Ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kuhlala kusongela kakhulu ekuchumeni kwamanje nokwesikhathi esizayo ngokunciphisa imali engenayo yangempela nokuzihlaziya ukuqina kwe-macroeconomic. Amabhange aphakathi manje asegxile ekubuyiseleni ukuqina kwentengo, futhi ijubane lokuqina lisheshise kakhulu.

Lapho kunesidingo khona, inqubomgomo yezezimali kufanele iqinisekise ukuthi izimakethe zihlala zizinzile. Kodwa-ke, amabhange aphakathi emhlabeni jikelele adinga ukugcina isandla esiqinile, nenqubomgomo yezimali igxile ngokuqinile ekubambeni ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Amandla edola laseMelika futhi kuyinselelo enkulu. Idola manje selinamandla kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2000s. Kuze kube manje, lokhu kunyuka kubonakala kuqhutshwa kakhulu ngamandla ayisisekelo njengokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali e-US nasezinhluphekweni zamandla.

Impendulo efanelekile ukulinganisa inqubomgomo yezezimali ukuze ilondoloze ukuqina kwentengo, ngenkathi ukuvumelanisa amanani okushintshana kuguqulwe, kugcina imali ebalulekile yokushintshaniswa kwangaphandle kwangaphandle lapho izimo zezezimali ziba zimbi ngempela.

Njengoba umnotho wembulunga yonke uphonswa amanzi anesivunguvungu, manje yisikhathi sabadlali bezinqubomgomo ezisafufusa bezemakethe ukubhebhana phansi.

Amandla wokuqondisa umbono weYurophu

Umbono wonyaka olandelayo ubukeka ububi obuhle. Sibona i-Eurozone's GDP inkontileka engu-0,1% ngonyaka we-2023, okuyingxenye engezansi kwezivumelwano.

Kodwa-ke, ukuwela okuphumelelayo kwesidingo samandla - kusizwa ngesimo sezulu esifudumele - kanye namazinga okugcina igesi ngamaphesenti ayi-100 anciphisa ubungozi bokusebenza kanzima kwalobu busika.

Ngonyaka maphakathi nonyaka, isimo kufanele sithuthukise njengokuwa kwenyuka kwamandla emali kuvumela ukuzungeza kwemali engenayo kanye nokululama emkhakheni wezimboni. Kepha cishe awekho igesi yaseRussia Pipeline egeleza eYurophu ngonyaka olandelayo, izwekazi lizodinga ukubuyisela zonke izinto ze-Lost Energy Supplies.

Ngakho-ke indaba ka-2023 Macro izokhonjiswa kakhulu ngamandla. Umbono othuthukisiwe wokuphuma kwenuzi kanye ne-hydroelectric uhlanganiswe ne-degree ehlala njalo yokulondolozwa kwamandla nokufakwa esikhundleni sikaphethiloli kude negesi kusho ukuthi i-Europe ingahle icishwe inhlekelele yezomnotho ejulile ngaphandle kokuthola ubunzima obukhulu kwezomnotho.

Silindele ukuthi ukwehla kwamanani kukwehla ngo-2023, yize isikhathi esengeziwe samanani aphezulu kulo nyaka sibeka engcupheni enkulu yokunyuka kwamandla emali ephezulu.

Futhi ngokuphela okuphelele okuphelele kokungenisa igesi yaseRussia, imizamo yaseYurophu ngokubuyisa izinto zokusungula ingacindezela amanani entengo kagesi ngo-2023.

Lesi sithombe sokwehla kwamandla emali esingu-Core sibukeka kancane kune-helign faine fice, futhi silindele ukuthi iphinde ibe phezulu ngonyaka ka-2023, afinyelela kumaphesenti angama-3.7. Umkhuba oqinile wokubulala ovela ezimpahleni nasekuqubeni okunamandla kakhulu ngamanani entengo azokwakheka ekuziphatheni kokwenyuka kwamandla emali.

Ukwehla kwamandla entengo yezimpahla ezingewona amandla kuphakeme manje, ngenxa yokushintshwa kwesidingo, izindaba eziphikelelayo zokuhlinzekwa kanye nokudlula kwezindleko zamandla.

Kepha ukwehla kwamanani entengo yezimpahla zomhlaba wonke, kunciphisa ukungezwani okuthe xaxa, kanye namazinga aphezulu okusungula isilinganiso-ama-oda kusilinganiso sokushintshana sekusondele.

Ngezinsizakalo ezimele izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zomgogodla, kanye namaphesenti angaphezu kwangama-40 okukhuphuka kwamandla emali, kulapho indawo yangempela yempi yokukhuphuka kwamandla emali izoba ngo-2023.