Umhlaba kufanele ugweme ukuhlukana
Manje yisikhathi esiyinselele ikakhulukazi emnothweni womhlaba lapho umbono okulindeleke ube mnyama ngo-2023.
Amandla amathathu anamandla abambezela umnotho wembulunga yonke emuva: ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, isidingo sokuqinisa inqubomgomo yezimali phakathi nenhlekelele yezindleko zokuphila kanye nengcindezi eqhubekayo neyandayo yokwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nokwehla komnotho waseChina.
Phakathi nemihlangano yaminyaka yonke yeSikhwama Sezimali Samazwe Ngamazwe ngoMfumfu, sabikezela ukuthi ukukhula kwembulunga yonke kuzokwehla ukusuka kumaphesenti angu-6.0 ngonyaka odlule kuya kumaphesenti angu-3.2 kulo nyaka.Futhi, ngo-2023, sehlise isibikezelo sethu safinyelela kumaphesenti angu-2.7 — ngamaphesenti angu-0.2 amaphuzu aphansi kunalokho okwakubikezelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambi kwalokho ngoJulayi.
Silindele ukuthi ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke kube okubanzi, lapho amazwe ayingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yomnotho womhlaba azongena esivumelwaneni kulo nyaka noma ozayo.Iminotho emithathu emikhulukazi: i-United States, i-China kanye ne-euro, izoqhubeka nokuntengantenga.
Kukhona ithuba elilodwa kwamane lokuthi ukukhula komhlaba wonke ngonyaka ozayo kungase kwehle ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angu-2 - okuwumlando ophansi.Ngamafuphi, okubi kakhulu kuseza futhi, eminye iminotho emikhulu, njengeJalimane, kulindeleke ukuthi ingene esimweni sokwehla komnotho ngonyaka ozayo.
Ake sibheke iminotho emikhulu emhlabeni:
E-United States, ukuqinisa izimo zezimali nezezezimali kusho ukuthi ukukhula kungase kube cishe amaphesenti angu-1 ngo-2023.
E-China, sehlise isibikezelo sokukhula sangonyaka ozayo safinyelela kumaphesenti angu-4.4 ngenxa yokuntenga komkhakha wezakhiwo, kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka somhlaba wonke.
E-eurozone, inkinga yamandla edalwe ukungqubuzana kwe-Russia-Ukraine ithatha kanzima, inciphisa ukuqagela kwethu kokukhula kwango-2023 kuya kumaphesenti angu-0.5.
Cishe yonke indawo, amanani entengo akhuphuka ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi lawo okudla namandla, abangela ubunzima obukhulu emindenini esengozini.
Naphezu kokwehla kokwehla kwamandla emali, ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali ibonakala ibanzi futhi iphikelela kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe.Ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele manje kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-9.5 ngo-2022 ngaphambi kokuba kwehle kuye kumaphesenti angu-4.1 ngo-2024. Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kunwebeka ngaphezu kokudla namandla.
Isimo singase sibe sibi nakakhulu futhi ukuhwebelana kwenqubomgomo kube yinselele enkulu.Nazi izingozi ezine ezibalulekile:
Ingozi yokungaphathwa kahle kwenqubomgomo yezimali, yezimali, noma yezezimali ikhuphuke kakhulu ngesikhathi sokungaqiniseki okuphezulu.
Izinxushunxushu ezimakethe zezimali zingabangela izimo zezimali zomhlaba ukuba zibe zimbi, futhi idola laseMelika liqhubeke liqina.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali kungase kuqhubeke njalo, ikakhulukazi uma izimakethe zezabasebenzi zihlala ziqinile.
Ekugcineni, izingxabano e-Ukraine zisaqhubeka.Ukwenyuka okwengeziwe kungabhebhethekisa inkinga yamandla kanye nokuvikeleka kokudla.
Ukwenyuka kwezingcindezi zamanani kusalokhu kuwusongo olusheshayo ekuchumeni kwamanje nekusasa ngokucindezela amaholo angempela kanye nokubukela phansi ukuzinza komnotho omkhulu.Amabhange amakhulu manje agxile ekubuyiseleni ukuzinza kwentengo, futhi ijubane lokuqinisa liye lashesha kakhulu.
Lapho kunesidingo, inqubomgomo yezezimali kufanele iqinisekise ukuthi izimakethe zihlala zizinzile.Kodwa-ke, amabhange amakhulu emhlabeni wonke adinga ukugcina isandla esiqinile, nenqubomgomo yezimali igxile ngokuqinile ekulawuleni ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Amandla edola laseMelika nawo ayinselelo enkulu.Idola manje seliqine kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni kwawo-2000.Kuze kube manje, lokhu kukhuphuka kubonakala kuqhutshwa kakhulu amandla ayisisekelo njengokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali e-US kanye nenkinga yamandla.
Impendulo efanelekile iwukulinganisa inqubomgomo yezimali ukuze kugcinwe ukuzinza kwentengo, kuyilapho uvumela amazinga okushintshanisa alungise, konga izimali zokushintshisana zangaphandle ezibalulekile lapho izimo zezimali ziba zimbi ngempela.
Njengoba umnotho wembulunga yonke uphokophele emanzini anezivunguvungu, manje yisikhathi sokuba abenzi benqubomgomo bemakethe abasafufusa behlise izikhawu.
Amandla azobusa umbono waseYurophu
Umbono wonyaka ozayo ubukeka kabi kakhulu.Sibona i-GDP ye-eurozone yenza inkontileka ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 ngo-2023, okungaphansi kancane kokuvumelana.
Kodwa-ke, ukwehla okuyimpumelelo kwesidingo samandla - kusizwa isimo sezulu esifudumele sesizini - kanye namazinga okugcina igesi asondele kumthamo wamaphesenti angu-100 kunciphisa ingcuphe yesilinganiso samandla aqinile kulobu busika.
Maphakathi nonyaka, isimo kufanele sibe ngcono njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuvumela ukuzuza emalini engenayo kanye nokusimama emkhakheni wezimboni.Kodwa njengoba cishe ingekho igesi yepayipi laseRussia eligeleza lingena eYurophu ngonyaka ozayo, izwekazi kuzodingeka lithathele indawo yonke imithombo yamandla elahlekile.
Ngakho-ke indaba ye-macro ka-2023 izobe ilawulwa ngamandla.Ukubukeka okuthuthukisiwe kokuphuma kukagesi wenuzi kanye nogesi ophehlwa ngamanzi kuhlanganiswe nedigri ehlala njalo yokonga ugesi kanye nokushintshwa kukaphethiloli kude negesi kusho ukuthi iYurophu ingasuka kugesi waseRussia ngaphandle kokuhlupheka okujulile kwezomnotho.
Silindele ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kube phansi ngo-2023, nakuba isikhathi esinwetshiwe samanani aphezulu kulo nyaka sibeka engcupheni enkulu yokwehla kwamandla emali.
Futhi njengoba sekuseduze nokuphela okuphelele kokungeniswa kwegesi yaseRussia, imizamo yaseYurophu ekugcwaliseni kabusha uhlu ingase inyuse amanani entengo kaphethiloli ngo-2023.
Isithombe sokwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo sibukeka sisihle kakhulu kunesibalo sesihloko, futhi silindele ukuthi siphinde sibe phezulu ngo-2023, okuyisilinganiso esingamaphesenti angu-3.7.Ukuthambekela okuqinile kokwehla kwamandla emali okuvela ezimpahleni kanye nezintengo zesevisi ezinamathelayo kakhulu kuzoshintsha ukuziphatha kokwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwezimpahla ezingezona ezamandla kuphezulu manje, ngenxa yokushintsha kwesidingo, izinkinga eziqhubekayo zokuhlinzeka kanye nokudlula kwezindleko zamandla.
Kodwa ukwehla kwezintengo zempahla yomhlaba wonke, ukunciphisa ukungezwani kokuthengwa kwempahla, kanye namazinga aphezulu esilinganiso se-inventories-to-oda siphakamisa ukuthi ukuguqulwa kuseduze.
Njengoba izinsiza ezimele izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zomongo, kanye namaphesenti angaphezu kwama-40 wenani eliphelele lokwehla kwamandla emali, kulapho impi yangempela yokwehla kwamandla emali izoba khona ngo-2023.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-16-2022